Microsoft word - waikato futures symposium 15 july 2008 - further reading.doc

Waikato Futures Symposium 15 July 2008 Further
Reading
New Zealand
MAF (2008) Future Focus: Signposts to Success for New Zealand's Primary Industries, New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry This project identified external drivers likely to impact on the agriculture, food and forestry sectors, and in the biosecurity setting, over the next two decades. The 6 key drivers of change identified from the global scenario database were: global warming, climate change, and extreme weather; energy cost and supply; geopolitical power shifts, and international trade and investment; ecosystem degradation, and water quality and availability; demographic shifts; and, technological advances. PCE (2005) Future currents: Electricity scenarios for New Zealand 2005-2050 Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, Wellington, NZ This report develops two scenarios of New Zealand over time – in 2015, 2030 and 2050. These depend on today's energy choices. The first scenario, fuelling the future describes a “think big” future. Building big power projects is seen as the key to a secure electricity supply. The second scenario, sparking new designs, suggests that New Zealanders improves its “carbon productivity” (more for less) through efficiency gains and switching to alternative energy forms. Energy infrastructure is more distributed - businesses, communities and individuals – using more local energy sources. Taylor, Rhys, Frame, Bob, Delaney, Kate & Brignall-Theyer, Melissa (2007) Four Future Scenarios for New Zealand: Work In Progress Edition 2. Manaaki Whenua Press These New Zealand scenarios focus on what might happen under different sustainability agendas. The scenarios - named Independent Aotearoa, Fruits for a Few, New Frontiers and Living on No.8 Wire - give a rich sense of how life could differ in the future: at work, at home, in politics and in business. International
CMI (2008) Management Futures: The World of Work in 2018, UK Chartered Management Institute (CMI) The CMI prepared an environmental scan and a scenario report that suggest by 2018 business markets will experience more competition and conflict; business models will become more open to external influences (e.g. environmental concerns and regulation will create products with longer lifecycles and ‘virtual businesses’ will be commonplace); and business structures will reflect changes in society and be more multi-generational with increased numbers of senior women. The study calls for a focus on ‘intellectual property banks’ to balance requirements for openness with business protection. The ability to drive change will be a prized skill and ‘innovation and creativity will be key to most tasks’. Harper, Sarah (2008) Future of Retirement Report: Investing in Later Life, HSBC Insurance This study examined the data collected from over 21,000 people in 25 countries and territories around the world. Four key themes were: a large proportion of the world's ageing population are unprepared for later life and are potentially facing the prospect of falling into a serious ‘vulnerability trap' in retirement; there is a significant lack of confidence that governments across the world will be able to support their ageing populations; the majority of people think that the role of governments should be in enforcing additional private savings; and, individuals would prefer to leave their children their perspective on life than money. Oxford Analytica (2007) Strategic Business Risk 2008: The Top Ten Risks for Business, Ernst & Young Global and Oxford Analytica Based on expert views this report identified the top ten risks as: regulatory and compliance risk; global financial shocks; aging consumers and workforce; the inability to capitalise on emerging markets; industry consolidation/transition; energy shocks; execution of strategic transactions; cost inflation; radical greening and consumer demand shifts. Padmore, Liz & others (2002) Business in a fragile world: 01.01.2012., Policy and Corporate Afairs, Accenture This scenario study argued that the world was at a tipping point driven by the degree of economic interdependence and world, the extent of collaboration in the socio-political environment. Three of their four scenarios demonstrate that although globalisation may well continue, a globalised world may come in very different forms, some much more positive for business than others. The fourth scenario highlights the real possibility of an overall retreat from globalization. PWC (2007) Managing Tomorrow's People: The future of work to 2020, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP In this report a team of people brought together by PricewaterhouseCoopers consultancy explored the future of work by developing three scenarios. The scenarios which might co-exist were (1) “Corporate is king: The blue world” where big company capitalism rules; (2) Companies care: The green world where social responsibility dominates the corporate agenda; and (3) Small is beautiful: The orange world where companies begin to break down into collaborative networks of smaller organisations. The report said these scenarios illustrate that business models will change dramatically, people management will present one of the greatest business challenges and the role of HR will undergo fundamental change. Saffo, Paul (2007) Six rules for effective forecasting. Harvard Business Review, July-August 2007 In this article Paul Saffo argues that businesses need to be more anticipatory to better cope with expected change and unanticipated surprises. This not only involves understanding how change might happen; it also requires decision makers to (1) embrace the things that don’t fit (2) hold strong opinions weakly (3) look back twice as far as they look forward and (4) know when not to make a forecast. Shell (2008) Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050, Shell International BV In this scenario exercise Shell describes two worlds that describe alternative ways energy systems might develop. In Scramble policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the Blueprints scenario growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies and this results is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. WBCSD (2006) Business in the world of water: WBCSD Water Scenarios to 2025, The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) The water scenarios explore the globally increasing value of water and its rise on the business agenda. The H2O scenarios outline three stories about the role of business in relation to the growing issue of water in the world to show what will challenge economic viability, social legitimacy, and global fitness in the marketplace. Additional resources from: http://www.creatingfutures.org.nz/home

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