Subsector : Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
Sector : Health care
Region : USA & CDN
Stock exchange : NYSE
Recommendation : buy
Price: 50,19 USD
Quality : good
Date: 27/03/2008
Risk profile: very dynamic
Source : KBC Asset Management
Most recent recommendation change: 13/07/2006

Price chart
‰ Eli Lilly (Lilly) is a global pharmaceutical company with a strong therapeutic presence in central nervous system, oncology and insulin markets. Eli Lilly also makes antibiotics, cardiovascular treatments and animal health products. The company has manufacturing plants in 14 countries with products being sold in ‰ In order to strengthen its manufacturing base, the company focuses on expanding its biotech business. Accordingly, in 2006, the company opened a biosynthetic insulin plant in Puerto Rico and a pilot manufacturing facility in Indianapolis. It also plans to build a new biotech plant in Ireland and expand its parenteral- ‰ The company acquires companies that complement to its existing product development strategy. In line with this, it acquired ICOS and Hypnion in 2007. It has further signed a deal with OSI Pharmaceuticals to acquire the rights to the latter’s compound to ‰ In line with its Six Sigma initiative that was launched in 2004, the company expects to complete around 1600 projects in its sales MSCI ACWI PHARM/BIOTEC - PRICE INDEXMSCI AC WORLD - PRICE INDEX and marketing affiliates, manufacturing sites, R&D operations and administrative costs. It expects these initiatives to benefit the Key figures- source: Reuters
‰ The net sales of Eli Lilly for 2007 grew 18,8% YoY to 18,6 bln USD. Revenues from Pharmaceutical segment increased 19% to Eli Lilly
17,6 bln USD while that from Animal Health grew 13,8% to 995,8 mln USD. The net income was 3 bln USD compared with 2,7 bln ‰ Eli Lilly benefited from strong sales of its products such as Alimta, Byetta, Cialis, Cymbalta, Forteo, Strattera, Symbyax, Xigris and Yentreve, which collectively grew 57% during the year. Segmental Revenues 2007
The top line was boosted by higher revenues of the company’s largest selling drug, Zyprexa (accounted for 25,6% of the total sales) grew 9,1% to 4,8 bln USD. The sales of Cymbalta (antidepressant) grew 59,7% to 2,1 bln USD and that of Gemzar (pancreatic and lung-cancer) increased 13,1% to 1,6 bln USD. The company experienced a 13,5% growth in sales of Humalog (diabetes) to 1,5 bln USD and a 430% increase in sales of Cialis (impotency) to 1,1 bln USD. The sales of Evista (osteoporosis) ‰ Going forward, Eli Lilly expects strong sales growth for Cymbalta, Cialis, Byetta, Alimta and Humalo. The company forecasts EPS to be in the range of 3,80-3,95 USD for the full year 2008. ‰ Eli Lilly collaborates with Sanofi-Aventis to market Cialis (tadalafil), an erectile-dysfunction drug, to the U.S urologists. ‰ Eli Lilly agrees with Suven Life Sciences for pre-clinical research of molecules in the therapeutic area of central nervous system. Our main concern about Eli Lilly was the weak development in prescription Strengths
behaviour for a number of its key products. Recently the prescription ‰ Strong drug franchises in the product portfolio with low patent behaviour for its products has stabilised or even accelerated, which musteliminate investors' fears concerning profit forecast downgrades. We ‰ Strong product mix of existing products and new launches believe that investors' focus will gradually shift to the company's good long-term prospects. The company has a superior growth profile, with forecast average earnings growth of 10.2% over the next three years as Weaknesses
compared with a sector average of just 9.7% for the large pharmaceutica ‰ Heavy dependence on one drug, Zyprexa, for revenue generation companies. In addition Eli Lilly is subject to only a limited patent risk and ‰ Marketing budgets could be impacted by a spate of product the company’s dependence on products under development in the

Source: http://www.liontamer.com/Downloads/pdf/fallen_angels/ELI_LILLY.pdf

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Caren M. Walker Website: www.scholar.berkeley.edu/carenwalker Phone: (607) 761-8020; Email: [email protected] EDUCATION Ph.D. in Psychology • University of California, Berkeley (Expected May, 2015) Additional Committee members: Fei Xu, John Campbell (Philosophy) Topics: Causal learning, cognitive development, abstract reasoning, computational models of learning M.A. in


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